I have been known to say that only fools and science fiction writers try to predict the future.  As I am definitely not a science fiction writer, I must therefore be a fool, as I am going to make a prediction for the work in 2024 and beyond. 

The rise of the office dodger.

We all know the story by now.  Post pandemic, many knowledge workers wanted to retain remote and hybrid work.  They glimpsed a life without the commute, without the need for everyone to be in the same place to get stuff done, a life with more balance.

We know from surveys that employees will leave jobs for opportunities to work flexibly.  We know that they value it highly, even sometimes more than a pay rise.

Through my academic research and my client work, I estimate that I have now read over 20,000 individual comments on the remote and hybrid work experience.  At the heart of all of these is one simple concept.  Location flexibility gives people more time, more life, more balance. And they are not prepared to give it up.

All the attendance mandates in the world, all the corporate videos and offers of pizza and free coffee will not return reluctant employees to the office if they can avoid it.  For the most part, it is not that people do not want to come into the office at all. On the contrary, many people want to go to a physical workspace some of the time. They just don’t want to do it when they don’t have to and they do not want to have to do it every day.

Instead, they will act on their own terms and in what they see as their own best interests – and this might include strategies for dodging the office. 

Some might leave their job entirely, although this will not be an option for all.  Others will ignore the mandates and encouragement, and simply hunker down and wait for someone to call them out or take some sort of HR action.  Others will do the bare minimum of attendance they can get away with.  Some might ‘coffee badge’ or engage in some high profile hybridteeism, turning up for events and making sure that they are seen by those that need to see them and then disappearing again.   Others will book holidays or call in sick when it’s the all team day. 

Right now, organisations seem to be using a mix of options to encourage attendance, from monitoring badge swipes to tempting employees by creating a worthwhile in-person experience. There is no single strategy that will address the office dodger. Even those organisations that have decided to implement a full RTO rather than manage a hybrid offering will have to face this potential issue, even if it shows up through long tail retention and engagement. 

Instead organisations need to recognise that employees have choices and will make them. The pandemic forced many to reflect on what matters most, and the place work has in their lives. We need to understand their reluctance and take a nuanced approach to the challenge. Either that or continue to play an ever complex game of ‘chase the dodger’.